Data Integrity & Methodology

Every number is traceable.
No black boxes.

Every data point in every Trades Intel report is sourced, dated, and verifiable. We tell you exactly where the data comes from, how we calculate the shortage score, and where our limitations are. Transparency is not a disclaimer — it's the product.

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Government Sources
BLS, DOL, USAJobs — all primary government data, publicly available and independently verifiable by anyone.
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Published Union Scales
IBEW journeyman wage rates come directly from published union scales — not estimated, not modeled, not scraped.
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Dated & Refreshed
Every report states the data collection date. We never recycle old numbers — every report runs fresh data.
Wage Intelligence
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
The national wage benchmark — what most cost models, bond underwriters, and GC estimators are currently using.
BLS Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics (OES)
The BLS OES program publishes annual median hourly and annual wages by occupation for every major metro area and nationally. This is the wage benchmark most construction cost models, surety bond pricing, and labor market analyses use as their baseline.

We use BLS OES as the baseline benchmark — the number every other signal is compared against. The gap between BLS and actual market rates is our core intelligence signal.
Published annually 2024 data in use National + metro level SOC code by trade
TRADES TRACKED (2024 PUBLISHED)
TradeSOC CodeBLS Median/hrBLS Annual
Electricians47-2111$31.29$65,080
HVAC Technicians49-9021$26.51$55,140
Plumbers / Pipefitters47-2152$30.77$64,000
Ironworkers47-2221$30.46$63,360
Fiber / Telecom Installers49-2022$29.42$61,190
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — bls.gov/oes
IBEW Published Journeyman Wage Scales
The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) publishes the collectively bargained journeyman wage rate for each local union. These are the actual rates paid to union electricians in each market — not estimated, not modeled, not adjusted.

This is the market rate. The gap between this number and BLS is the signal. If a contractor or staffing agency is sourcing labor at BLS rates in a market where IBEW is 50-117% higher, they are structurally underpricing every bid and losing every candidate.
Updated annually per local Journeyman electrician only Publicly available
IBEW RATES BY MARKET (CURRENT)
MarketIBEW LocalJourneyman RateGap vs BLS
Northern VirginiaLocal 26$58.35/hr+$27.06 (86%)
SeattleLocal 46$67.80/hr+$36.51 (117%)
ChicagoLocal 134$61.45/hr+$30.16 (96%)
DenverLocal 68$52.30/hr+$21.01 (67%)
PhoenixLocal 640$47.20/hr+$15.91 (51%)
DallasLocal 20$44.80/hr+$13.51 (43%)
ColumbusLocal 683$42.60/hr+$11.31 (36%)
AtlantaLocal 613$40.10/hr+$8.81 (28%)
CharlotteLocal 379$38.50/hr+$7.21 (23%)
RaleighLocal 553$37.90/hr+$6.61 (21%)
Davis-Bacon Act Prevailing Wages (DOL)
The Davis-Bacon Act requires payment of locally prevailing wages on federally funded construction projects. The Department of Labor publishes prevailing wage determinations by county and trade. This is the third point in our three-point wage benchmark — the federal wage floor relevant to any project with federal funding, including data center projects tied to IIJA or DoD contracts.
Published by county DOL Wage and Hour Division Applies to federal contracts
Source: U.S. Department of Labor — Wage and Hour Division
Demand Intelligence
Building Permit Data
Permit filings are the leading indicator of labor demand — they tell you where the work is going 6-12 months before subcontractor bids go out.
Shovels.ai — County Permit Database
Shovels.ai aggregates building permit filings directly from county and municipal records across the United States. We query permit counts by county, broken down by trade type (electrical, HVAC, plumbing, new construction).

Our permit data is current as of the last monthly collection run. Every report states the exact collection date. We do not extrapolate or model forward — we report what was actually filed.
Current data: May 17, 2026 Refreshed monthly County-level resolution Trade-type breakdown
COUNTIES TRACKED (MAY 2026)
MarketCountiesTotal Permits (30d)Electrical
CharlotteMecklenburg, NC9,9224,047
DallasDallas + Tarrant, TX6,6821,426
DenverDenver + Jefferson, CO5,2021,191
Northern VirginiaFairfax + Loudoun + Arlington + Alexandria, VA4,175966
PhoenixMaricopa, AZ3,118474
SeattleKing, WA2,407866
ChicagoCook, IL2,520746
ColumbusFranklin, OH2,273347
AtlantaFulton + Gwinnett, GA79988
RaleighWake, NC775153
Source: County and municipal permit records, aggregated monthly
Supply Intelligence
Federal Job Postings
A secondary demand signal showing active federal hiring competition for skilled trades — relevant in markets with heavy DoD and federal construction activity.
USAJobs API — Federal Government Job Postings
The USAJobs API provides access to all active federal government job postings. We query by trade occupation and geography to track federal hiring pressure competing against private sector construction projects for the same labor pool.

Federal positions typically include wage grade (WG) classifications that provide an additional wage benchmark independent of BLS and IBEW data.
Official federal job board Real-time postings WG wage grade included Secondary signal only
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management — federal job posting data
Methodology
How We Calculate the Shortage Score
The shortage score is a 1–10 index combining permit demand, wage market pressure, and labor supply signals into a single number per trade, per market. The exact weighting methodology is proprietary — but the inputs, the output scale, and what each score means are fully documented here.
1
Inputs
Three signals feed every shortage score: active construction permit volume by county and trade type, the wage gap between IBEW published journeyman rates and BLS medians, and federal job posting activity as a secondary demand indicator.
2
Score Interpretation
Each score maps to a plain-language label and a set of stakeholder-specific recommendations included in every report.
ScoreLabelWhat It Means
8–10CRITICALSevere shortage. Wages spiking. Major project delays likely. Surety underwriters should require labor plans for any bond over $5M.
6–7HIGHSignificant shortage. GCs should begin sourcing 60–90 days earlier than normal. Budget 10–15% wage premium above BLS benchmarks.
4–5MODERATESelective shortages. Standard planning timelines apply with some caution on specific trades.
1–3LOWLabor available. Normal market conditions. No premium wages required beyond standard BLS benchmarks.
Honest Limitations
What We Don't Know
Transparency means disclosing what our data cannot tell you, not just what it can.
IBEW Covers Union Labor Only
IBEW journeyman rates reflect union electrician wages. Non-union markets may have different prevailing rates. We note this in reports where open-shop labor is prevalent.
BLS Data Is 12–18 Months Old
BLS OES data is published annually and reflects conditions from roughly 12–18 months prior by the time it reaches a cost model. We use it as a baseline, not a current rate.
Permit Data Has a Monthly Lag
Shovels.ai data is refreshed monthly. Permits filed in the final weeks of a month may not appear until the following refresh cycle. Every report states the exact collection date.
Shortage Scores Are Directional
The 1–10 shortage score is a directional index, not a precise statistical measure. It should be used to identify relative market tightness across corridors, not as an absolute figure.
10 Markets Only (For Now)
We currently track Charlotte, NoVA, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Chicago, Columbus, Raleigh, and Atlanta. Markets outside these corridors are not covered in standard reports.
Not Investment or Legal Advice
Trades Intel provides market intelligence, not financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports are informational inputs for risk assessment — not recommendations to act.
Questions About Our Data

Ask us anything.

If you have a question about a specific data point, source, or methodology — email us directly. We'll respond with the source citation.

jamell@tradesintel.org
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